FOR Turkey’s EU membership |
AGAINST Turkey’s EU membership |
1. GEOGRAPHYIstanbul is a great European city that lies at the economic and cultural heart of Turkey. The country is an invaluable bridge between Europe and Asia. As a member, it would re-invigorate Europe’s relations with fast evolving regions like the energy rich Caucasus and Central Asia, to the new Middle East emerging from the Arab Spring. Turkey’s unique geo-strategic position, plus the strength of NATO’s second-largest army would greatly add to European security. |
1. GEOGRAPHYTurkey is not a European country. 97% of its territory lies in Asia. The EU does not need shared borders with Syria, Iran and Iraq. Agreeing to one non-European member would open the door for candidates from Cape Verde to Kazakhstan. Turkey is too big for the EU to absorb. With a population predicted to reach 91 million by 2050, it will be the dominant member of the EU. |
2. POLITICSTurkish democracy is at a crossroads. Until recently, the prospect of EU membership had spurred reforms that strengthened pluralistic politics and improved human rights. President Erdoğan, however, has been accused by critics of turning Turkey into an “illiberal democracy”, centralising power in the office of the president and silencing critics with litigation. The passage to EU membership could provide the incentive Turkey needs to shrug off emerging authoritarian tendencies and commit fully to democracy. Turkey is a strong and loyal NATO ally. Leaving it in the cold could see this growing economic and diplomatic power develop into an uncomfortable rival to European interests in a sensitive region. Having accepted Turkey as a candidate, rejecting it now would undermine European credibility. |
2. POLITICSThe 2016 coup attempt demonstrates that Turkey is not a mature European-style democracy. Its politics are a tussle between an overbearing military and Islamists of varying hues. Human rights are routinely abused. Dozens of journalists languish in jail. Amnesty International’s annual report is filled with accounts of torture, free speech violations, denial of minority rights, unfair trials, failure to protect women. Europe would import the intractable Kurdish issue. Public opinion in the EU is overwhelmingly opposed and the Turks are only lukewarm about joining. |
3. ECONOMICSThe Turkish economy is thriving. Its GDP growth average for 2014 was around 3.5% and it weathered the global financial downturn much better than most EU nations. Its public finances are the envy of Southern Europe. Per-capital income has increased six-fold and the average Turk is now better off than his or her Romanian and Bulgarian counterparts in the EU. Only New York, London and Moscow have more resident billionaires than Istanbul. Bringing in such a dynamo would inject new life into the EU economy, as well as adding 75 million consumers to the single market. |
3. ECONOMICSTurkey’s impressive growth rate is flagging, and the country remains an underdeveloped economy. In 2011, GDP growth was almost 9%, but by 2014 it was only 3.5%. Turkish GDP per capita, at €13,000, is less than half the EU average. The entry of a country that poor and that big would place unbearable strains on EU finances. Turkey’s wealth is unequally spread, meaning that an army of poor immigrants would head west, joining the estimated 10 million Turks already living in the EU. In addition, though Turkey weathered the economic crisis much better than most, it failed to push through necessary reforms and economic growth is falling while unemployment is rising. |
4. HISTORY, CULTURE, RELIGIONReaching out to this prosperous Muslim democracy would send a clear signal that Europe is open to the Islamic world. EU membership would be symbolic of Turkey’s success as a secular Islamic nation and a model for others from Morocco to Indonesia. Turkey has been fully entwined in Europe’s history since the Ottomans crossed the Bosporus in the 14th Century. The country’s westward outlook has accentuated under the republic since 1922. Turkey’s rich cultural heritage is unique, but it is also undeniably European. EU membership would be a catalyst for resolving the Kurdish issue as well as relations with Cyprus and Armenia. |
4. HISTORY, CULTURE, RELIGIONTurkey’s historic and cultural roots lay in Central Asia and the Middle East. It missed the shared experiences that bind Europeans together, from the cultural legacy of Renaissance and Enlightenment, to the horrors of the Second World War which galvanised the drive for united Europe. As an overwhelmingly Muslim nation, Turkey’s cultural traditions are fundamentally different from those of Christian Europe. Turkey’s historical interaction with Europe has always been as an outside invader. Cyprus is an insurmountable obstacle. |