Could the war in Ukraine spread to other countries? So-called frozen conflicts are particularly prevalent in parts of the former Soviet Union where modern-day Russia still has (or wishes to have) significant influence. As well as Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh, many experts considered Crimea, as well as Donetsk and Luhansk in South-Eastern Ukraine, to be such frozen conflicts. Is there a risk they could unthaw as the war in Ukraine destabilises the regional geopolitical order?

Want to learn more about Eastern Europe’s frozen conflicts? Check out our infographic below (click for a bigger version):

We recently organised a Citizens’ Panel bringing together citizens and civil society members to discuss Eastern Europe’s frozen conflicts. Below are some of the questions that come out of that panel.

Jules asked:

I’m thinking of the EU monitoring mission in Georgia. To what extent will it remain in duty if Russian troops go beyond Abkhazia and South Ossetia? What is the ability of this entity to operate if the conflict escalates further?

Mariami asked:

I wanted to know to what extent do we consider Abkhazia and South Ossetia a ‘frozen conflict’ when we witness creeping borders, abductions, disappearances, and so on? How is this still considered a frozen conflict when there are violations of fundamental human rights taking place every day?

To get a response, we put these questions to two participants during a Friends of Europe online event on frozen conflicts:

💬 Hamida Giyasbayli, Conflict specialist and journalist

💬 Esmira Jafarova, Board Member of the AIR Center

You can watch their responses in the video above.

Could ‘frozen conflicts’ in Eastern Europe start unthawing? Could the war in Ukraine spread to other countries? Let us know your thoughts and comments in the form below and we’ll take them to policymakers and experts for their reactions!

IMAGE CREDITS: (CC BY-SA 2.0) International Crisis Group
Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.



8 comments Post a commentcomment

What do YOU think?

  1. avatar
    EU-Reform Proactive

    With a politician named Putin in charge of Russia at present, anything and more is possible!

    After he and “Putism” (or ‘Mutism’?) have finally revealed their true and weird face to the whole world- this man must be seen as a serious danger to all humanity- not only Ukraine!

    It shouldn’t be (‘tolerated’) that Europe and the whole world will be burdened with a Russian political figure like Putin- self-anointed until 2036!

    Business as usual has ended! Is the UN Security Council or UN bold enough to stand up and chastise Putin personally and Russia- for going rogue?

    The Veto privilege in the UNSC should automatically be forfeited once UN founding members were found guilty by the ICC & UN to have recklessly endangered the global peace and threatened an all-out war, even nuclear!

    What known crime against humanity could be worse than the intention to unleash a nuclear war, with the consequential extinction of all humans, together with every living creature on earth- to resurrect an outdated & forever gone……. ‘what’s it called?

    https://www.icc-cpi.int/

    By witnessing and judging his recent brutal & cynical actions, there should be no doubt, that he & his clique have merged into one of Europe’s greatest & most dangerous dictators. It appeared that the cold war ended around 1992. But since 2000 Mr Putin was already contemplating- no way- only Putin’s way!

    Quote: “Authoritarian regimes are corrupt in a more fundamental way than liberal democracies because the access to power on every level of state bureaucracy in the former effectively signifies access to wealth accumulation as well.”

    Calling others Nazis & fascists?!

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/07/how-putin-changed-russia-forever/

    https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/FP_20200615_the_limits_of_authoritarian_compatibility_xis_china_and_putins_russia.pdf

  2. avatar
    Pierre

    The question is, what did EU do since 2014 to avoid the war in Ukraine?

    • avatar
      Franco

      oh yes indeed…

  3. avatar
    Yannick

    The idea that war should be a solution to anything is just so far out.

  4. avatar
    Siniša

    It is missing Kazakh an Belarus uprisings, and a special status of Belarus as a quasi independent state, in fact extension of the Russian Federation, and a special (abnormal) geopolitical position of Kaliningrad. Ukraine was a frozen conflict and now it is not frozen any more.

  5. avatar
    Γεώργιος

    Warmongerism tales .Disgusting bloody business instead of human permanent PEACE

  6. avatar
    Olivier

    EU missed to give hand to russia after perestroika. It was a major mistake

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