Could the war in Ukraine spread to other countries? So-called frozen conflicts are particularly prevalent in parts of the former Soviet Union where modern-day Russia still has (or wishes to have) significant influence. As well as Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh, many experts considered Crimea, as well as Donetsk and Luhansk in South-Eastern Ukraine, to be such frozen conflicts. Is there a risk they could unthaw as the war in Ukraine destabilises the regional geopolitical order?
Want to learn more about Eastern Europe’s frozen conflicts? Check out our infographic below (click for a bigger version):
I’m thinking of the EU monitoring mission in Georgia. To what extent will it remain in duty if Russian troops go beyond Abkhazia and South Ossetia? What is the ability of this entity to operate if the conflict escalates further?
I wanted to know to what extent do we consider Abkhazia and South Ossetia a ‘frozen conflict’ when we witness creeping borders, abductions, disappearances, and so on? How is this still considered a frozen conflict when there are violations of fundamental human rights taking place every day?
💬 Hamida Giyasbayli, Conflict specialist and journalist
💬 Esmira Jafarova, Board Member of the AIR Center
You can watch their responses in the video above.
Could ‘frozen conflicts’ in Eastern Europe start unthawing? Could the war in Ukraine spread to other countries? Let us know your thoughts and comments in the form below and we’ll take them to policymakers and experts for their reactions!