How bad would ‘no deal’ really be? A recent report by the Halle Institute for Economic Research suggests that more than 700,000 jobs could be lost across the EU. Large EU Member States such as Germany and France would suffer the most job losses in absolute terms, though smaller countries stand to be hit worse relative to their size (particularly Ireland, Malta, the Netherlands, and Belgium, which are all highly integrated with the British economy).
No deal would be a disaster for the EU. However, analysts fear it could be even more catastrophic for Britain. Reports suggest failure to agree a trade deal has the potential to be more damaging for the UK economy than the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. There have also been warnings of grounded aircraft, 5-mile traffic jams at the port of Dover, as well as immediate food and medicine shortages.
Britain officially left the European Union on 31 January 2019. However, Brexit is a process not an event; the country remains in a “transition period” until the end of 2020, meaning it has full access to the EU Single Market (albeit without a seat at the table when decisions are being made). The transition ends on 31 December, and a trade deal will need to be agreed in the coming days if it is to be ratified by national parliaments (and the European Parliament) in time to meet the deadline.
What happens if there’s no Brexit trade deal? Could the economic fallout from Brexit be worse than for the Covid-19 pandemic? Let us know your thoughts and comments in the form below and we’ll take them to policymakers and experts for their reactions!