How bad would ‘no deal’ really be? A recent report by the Halle Institute for Economic Research suggests that more than 700,000 jobs could be lost across the EU. Large EU Member States such as Germany and France would suffer the most job losses in absolute terms, though smaller countries stand to be hit worse relative to their size (particularly Ireland, Malta, the Netherlands, and Belgium, which are all highly integrated with the British economy).

No deal would be a disaster for the EU. However, analysts fear it could be even more catastrophic for Britain. Reports suggest failure to agree a trade deal has the potential to be more damaging for the UK economy than the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. There have also been warnings of grounded aircraft, 5-mile traffic jams at the port of Dover, as well as immediate food and medicine shortages.

Britain officially left the European Union on 31 January 2019. However, Brexit is a process not an event; the country remains in a “transition period” until the end of 2020, meaning it has full access to the EU Single Market (albeit without a seat at the table when decisions are being made). The transition ends on 31 December, and a trade deal will need to be agreed in the coming days if it is to be ratified by national parliaments (and the European Parliament) in time to meet the deadline.

What happens if there’s no Brexit trade deal? Could the economic fallout from Brexit be worse than for the Covid-19 pandemic? Let us know your thoughts and comments in the form below and we’ll take them to policymakers and experts for their reactions!

IMAGE CREDITS: BigStock – (c) Jez Sage

14 comments Post a commentcomment

What do YOU think?

  1. avatar

    Well. We must stay firm with UK and do not accept an unfair competition from UK which would not accept same rules or norms than European producers..
    Don t fear à no deal and stay without concessions…

  2. avatar

    I have never seen a conservative UK government that cares about all it’s citizens. They ensure their financial sector is ok and their network of tax haven’s in their British Overseas Territories are ok.

    • avatar
      Jan-Marten Spit


      The damage of engaging in a trade deal with depraved lot of feudal relics is certainly going to be more damaging to the EU than opting for the lesser evil.

      Luckily this seems to be widely understood in the EU. Moreover, the UK needs a revolution, albeit two centuries late. And revolutions thrive on disaster. So lets make sure they get the one “they voted for”.

  3. avatar

    Well, some customs agencies would make good money, and there will be a western example of a hard border, with passports and vehicle checks and looong waiting times.

  4. avatar
    Catherine Benning

    What happens if there’s no Brexit trade deal?

    The majority of the indigenous people of the UK will have a very happy holiday and be delighted to be able to look forward to the prospect of a prosperous 2021! It will be the first step in regaining democracy for UK inhabitants.

    And here is food for thought, everything the EU does to scupper our freedoms in any way, or, tries to hinder our choices in world wide trade deals, and any other intolerable practice a civilised administration can dream of, including our fishing rights being nobbled, we will retaliate in kind. You sell far more to us than we to you.

    Merry Christmas BMW and Mercedes Benz, have a happy New Year. We hope a prosperous 2021 will be just wonderful for ‘all’ the people of Europe

    • avatar

      Yeah…you are not buying food? Or are you growing everything there?
      Gl with the no deal …poverty awaits and i’ll send some EUR no worries

    • avatar
      Jan-Marten Spit

      Democracy – a decade of fraudulent news about the EU, a parliament sent home, hereditary political power, sacrificing the real economy most Britons rely on to protect the dark money empire of a happy few from EU democracy – and ECJ oversight so the Brexit cabal can keep drinking Russian champagne instead of make themselves useful. You probably know the type quite intimately.

      Rasputin in Downing 10 is only two connections way from Putin. Cumming’s brother in law and Dmitri Firtash. We wonder if the UK can really sink any lower than handing honorary Cambridge tittles to Putin confidants.

      “You sell far more to us than we to you.”

      If i pretend you do not know this to be nonsense i might explain that running a trade deficit is not a good thing, and merely signifying that others are making better stuff more efficiently than you are – as they even can afford to include the added shipping cost. It is what happens when you kill off your manufacturing industry.

      We do not have to invent facts, twist the truth, or defraud our fellow countrymen in surrendering their livelihood. We just have to wait for reality to correct you, knowing that it will.

  5. avatar

    I’m going to have a massive party and get insanely drunk 😂

  6. avatar

    Just like before in the 90’s

  7. avatar

    Living expenses will rise.

  8. avatar

    Then we deal with UK the same way we deal with Norway or switzerland

    • avatar
      Jan-Marten Spit

      We deal with our Norwegian and Swiss friends under EFTA.

      Also, the Norwegians nor the Swiss lie about us once every 3 minutes.

  9. avatar

    The British Overseas tax haven networks are finally safe

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