Are we there yet?  It feels like the Brexit talks have been dragging on forever. In fact, there are less than six months left until “B-Day”, when the UK exits the European Union on 29 March 2019. That’s not a lot of time when you consider that the agreed text still needs to be signed off by all the governments involved, as well as voted on and ratified by national parliaments (not to mention the European Parliament).

So, is the end in sight? Well, it looks like the text of a possible deal has finally been agreed by negotiators. However, before you break out the champagne, there are some caveats to bear in mind. Firstly, we are not talking about the final EU-UK post-Brexit deal. What is being agreed here is essentially the terms of the divorce (as well as the “transitional arrangements” to the new relationship). Negotiations over the future EU-UK trade deal have been put off until a later date. So, get ready for many more months (if not years) of future trade talks.

Secondly, there is no guarantee that Theresa May will be able to get the deal through the British Parliament. As the details of the agreement have become clearer, opposition to the deal has grown among both eurosceptic and pro-European politicians in the UK. It seems likely the Prime Minister will be unable to pass her proposed deal through Parliament without the help of a significant number of rebels from the opposition Labour benches.

Many Remainers hope that if the deal collapses it will prompt a second referendum, possibly reversing Brexit. On the other hand, some Brexiteers hope to scupper a deal and see a “no deal” as nothing to be afraid of. Meanwhile, Theresa May’s Northern Irish allies in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are furious at the prospect that their “blood red lines” are being wiped away by the Prime Minister. Given all these challenges, it’s seems foolish to predict that Brexit is a done deal.

Is Brexit definitely going to happen? Or is the UK going to be trapped in a state of permanent transition, with one foot in the EU and one foot out? Could the deal collapse at the last minute? Can Brexit be reversed? Let us know your thoughts and comments in the form below and we’ll take them to policymakers and experts for their reactions!

IMAGE CREDITS: CC0 – pxhere


57 comments Post a commentcomment

What do YOU think?

  1. avatar
    George

    Are there people still in denial?
    #Brexit makes it better for EU and better for UK. It’s a win-win.

    • avatar
      John

      In what way will it be better? Be a bit more specific.. Trade?

  2. avatar
    Jean

    Please be more specific ! In exactly what way. Lose nearly half our trade maybe lose our medical staff. Gain deals with that idiot in America? I would love to hear your reasoning are you a milllionair ?

    • avatar
      Chris

      Jean, crickey you believe all that false news and project fear stuff? Half our medical staff, we’ll be able to allow more specifically trained medical staff outside of EU because the flow of untrained people into this country will stop. All the EU people here are not being asked to leave. We will be able to trade with the rest of the world freely unless Teresa has sold us out with her current deal.

    • avatar
      Jean

      She.sold us out on everything else so why not brexit !!!

    • avatar
      Jean

      And ps some of those ‘untrained ‘ people might be needed to take care of the likes of 80 yr old me soon !!!

    • avatar
      Max

      Chris We can already trade with the rest of the World and do so. People working for the NHS have to have the correct training qualifications and qualifications whether they are from the UK or overseas. Many EU people are being told to leave. Many others feel unwelcome and will leave if they can.

    • avatar
      Jean

      Chris I think you learned that phrase false news from a master of the art !!! Do your research and you will find that the concerns are well thought out !

  3. avatar
    Frank

    As a remainer I am happy with this deal. 😊

    • avatar
      Cai

      How can you be happy with the proposed deal? I voted Remain and I don’t like it we’ll be half in half out and no say in any of it .

    • avatar
      Stuart

      Frank obviously not a democrat

    • avatar
      Frank

      Stuart
      The Ballot paper said leave/remain.
      Nothing else.
      We’re leaving, job done, democracy served.

  4. avatar
    Stef

    No, if you want to reverse a democratic decision..

  5. avatar
    catherine benning

    Is Brexit definitely going to happen?

    This question is a manipulative test to see if the phoney ‘new’ go to the people again will satisfy voters! See if they can get away with making us voiceless.

    My understanding is, a deal has been struck. A hidden deal, one that will not allow a body of independent lawyers the right to have us know about it legally is offering and what it means to our country should it go ahead. They are censoring the legality of perusal from being public. Now I wonder why that is?

    We are now being told by ‘media’ there will indeed be another ‘go to the public’ vote. And hear this, the question on the ballot is to be this:

    Do we accept this European deal as it is offered. (Yes or No) But we are not to see, in depth’ what the deal is that is being offered for our vote.

    or

    Do we remain in the EU as it presently exists. (Yes or No)

    If it wasn’t so serious it would be hilarious. The deal we hear, as it is offered presently, is set up for us to accept we remain as it presently is. Remain in the Customs Union and the Single Market. In other words stay locked in without any voice at all. Which means no return to the freedom we seek from EU control, returning our ability to trade where and when we wish. Not to end our rule by the ECJ and to continue with the immigration policy set by EU nutter tyranny.

    Or

    Do we remain in the EU as it already is with no further call for exit.

    Catch 22…. They are planning to ask the voter, do you want to remain in the EU or Do you want to remain in the EU under worse conditions than we presently have.

    What would you do having voted to get out two years ago and still be waiting for a middle aged, menopausal woman, to stand by her democratic duty to accept the will of the people.

    May and her enablers should be facing Madame Guillotine.

  6. avatar
    Erika

    Good luck , the sooner the better, but very sorry for my friends and their children…

  7. avatar
    Pedro

    Not sure. But a no deal Brexit would be better for the EU.

  8. avatar
    Tyrone

    This is the most bizarre road trip ever,
    We had a vote the choice was leave or stay..
    So leave won and we start the longest trip most will ever experience..
    So remain are in the driving seat and leave sit in the passenger seat..
    every time few miles remain hit a pothole or curb or garage and look over at leave and say look what you have done!

  9. avatar
    Alberto

    Until recently, I did not see a mechanism whereby Brexit could realistically be stopped dead. I am now starting to see one, which is advocated by Andrew Adonis and others, but it looks quite unlikely. It would work like this:

    1. UK Parliament rejects the cabinet’s deal and calls for a second referendum (People’s Vote). This allows the UK govt to go back to the electorate without losing (too much) face.
    2. The UK asks for an extension of the March 2019 deadline (a referendum takes time to organize). The EU promptly agrees.
    3. Remain wins the People’s Vote
    4. UK govt calls off article 50.

    Kind of a long shot.
    2. Second referendum

    • avatar
      Paul X

      The “peoples vote” is not another referendum, it is claimed to be a vote on the final deal, which will most certainly get rejected as the deal pleases neither side of the argument. I then assume we end up with another two years of arguments and bitching under the disguise of “negotiating”

      If people want a second referendum then that’s what they should call it and campaign for

  10. avatar
    Paul Leno

    I voted to leave and as I am old enough to remember trading with countries both outside and within the EU group am not a believer in the lies put forward by Project Fear. The ‘common market’ was a good idea, the Federal State of Europe was a disaster waiting to happen – ask Greece , Italy etc. I’ll vote for no deal if given the option on the basis that the EU have no intention of offering any sort of acceptable deal.

  11. avatar
    Ian

    They are already preparing you for a second referendum…its inevitable

  12. avatar
    Betty

    Ian so your another that believes if you don’t get what you want, let’s keep voting till you do

    • avatar
      Irena

      No but people have a right to change their minds in the light of cheating, foreign interference , illegal overspending! Lies and deception on behalf of Leave!
      So much better informed now!

  13. avatar
    Christine

    We voted to leave the EU not for a bad deal that they have been threatening to give us all along. If this is not leaving the EU properly then they need to sack May and put in some one who will take us out of the EU in her place with a vote of no confidence.

    • avatar
      Lee

      Christine Nobody will get a better deal. Because there is no better deal. So we either leave without a deal and are horendously sorry.,or stay and suffer riots and unrest. By the way, If we do leave, we will almost certainly ‘re join within a few years when the oldies have pegged it. and this will cost a fortune . And for what?

    • avatar
      Christine

      Lee What would you rejoin for, Germany and France will get there army, and cause world war three, they are all ready riling other countries. So you are not worried we are paying a lot of money to be screwed over, just because the money men want to stay in. I feel unhappy that people can’t see the long term damage to this country of staying shackled to the EU. Money comes and goes, but they are selling your freedom to Europe. But if you are happy with that fair enough, as you say the old won’t live to see the damage you inflict on yourselves and your children, but you can’t say they didn’t try. They fought for that freedom and voted for it again. But like you say this time they lose.

    • avatar
      Paul

      Lee Hope you live to be an oldie..Did you force your oldie parents to vote remain?

    • avatar
      Steve

      Lee without those oldies you would never have been born..Don’t forget millions on young ones never got to be old because of PARTS OF EUROPE called GERMANY..and they are trying to take over again without pulling the triggers so thank you lucky stars mate for a lot of those oldies.

  14. avatar
    Catalin

    Of course. Even if I don’t like their decision, the people in UK have voted to leave the EU and that’s what the politicians should do. This is what democracy is about, the will of the people, even if they may not always make the best decisions, it’s better than authoritarianism.

  15. avatar
    Jeremy

    Only if Teresa is kicked to the curb

  16. avatar
    Arthur

    14th November the day democracy died

  17. avatar
    Montarcilio

    Here, south Europe, Portugal. I Hope the Brexit successful and a new life. After, we will follow next step gathered Spain, Greece, Italy. Good look.

    • avatar
      Riccardo

      I think the hell not.

    • avatar
      Nadya

      Greece will not be getting out any time soon, you can bet your life.

  18. avatar
    Dan

    What’s always baffled me about these calls for a second referendum is if these so called remainers are successful and overturn the original vote, won’t there have to be a third deciding referendum as the score would then be one,one?.

    • avatar
      Nadya

      The question of a second referendum would be “do you want the UK to leave the EU based on the deal negotiated, do you want to leave without a deal (not sure if this would be an option, as the government has judged it as being against the interest of the country) or do you want it to remain a member of the EU?”. In my view, this would be most appropriate because the difference between the two options was too small in the first referendum to justify such a major constitutional and social change. In most countries that have a written-down constitution and mechanisms in place to prevent a dictator coming to power or power ceding to the mob, this would not be acceptable. Plus the question was too general. The public had too little and inaccurate information in order to decide. Therefore, now that there are more facts and specific terms of leaving it would be actually a celebration of democracy to take it back to the people.

  19. avatar
    Dieter Birkenmaier

    There will be no Brexit. Read my lips.

  20. avatar
    Nadya

    I never believed it would happen. I don’t believe it now either. The serious Tories know full well that the interests of the country are better pursued inside the EU. However, it is difficult for them to say this openly after they have taken the country in this way. The aim now is to cancel the whole thing without losing face or disintegrating as a party, even though this is what should happen… Therefore we are seeing more and more “determined” and “right-wing” rhetoric from Theresa May while at the same time she has for the first time brought up the prospect of Brexit not going ahead… I don’t think there will be a second referendum. Theresa May has excluded this option. They Tories cannot risk taking it to the polls again. They have learnt their lesson now. But, I think they will cancel it at the very last minute or simply let it implode because of its own non-feasibility… Already the UK has been damaged so much though…

  21. avatar
    Paul

    If anyone knows the answer, please email it to a Mrs T May, Gov.UK… ….

  22. avatar
    Stephen prior

    Our country paid to be part of Europe with blood in two world wars, our families gave the ultimate sacrifices for this continent. What a cowardly act we have bestowed on our past to run away now because it’s become slightly uncomfortable, this nation has turned from a steadfast pillar of strength into a nation of lemmings lead by the Murdoch media that feeds fear and lies on every inked page and egotistical lying politicians.

  23. avatar
    Stephen

    Our country paid to be part of Europe with blood in two world wars, our families gave the ultimate sacrifices for this continent. What a cowardly act we have bestowed on our past to run away now because it’s become slightly uncomfortable, this nation has turned from a steadfast pillar of strength into a nation of lemmings lead by the Murdoch media that feeds fear and lies on every inked page and egotistical lying politicians.

    • avatar
      Dan

      Yes, I think you’ll find that our greatest generation(including my late father) fought to free this continent from German domination. how did that turn out hey.

  24. avatar
    Corrado Pirzio-Biroli

    Brexit is going to happen, either with the current (unchangeable) deal or without a deal. Westminster will hopefully recapture its sovereignty, which it should have never conceded by allowing a referendum. In case of a second consultative referendum, which is unlikely before end March, the result may well favour the Remainers, in which case the UK could apply to re-join the EU again if Westminster agreed so. Technically, that would be feasible, but not politically. For two reasons: 1) it would worsen splits in the two main parties as well as in British society, which were enhanced by the referendum initiative; 2) no new candidate will be allowed to accede with opt-outs. Which means that the UK would have to fully partake in the Schengen agreement, internal security rules, and social policy regulations, and give up the currently unjustified budgetary rebate. It would also have to join the EMU, as all recent new members had to accept as soon as they met the relevant criteria. The British people would have to be told (for the first time) what that would mean, notably that Joining the EU includes the final objective of political union (which has so far been kept hidden from the British people). If instead the EU accepted Britain as a new member with its current opt outs, other EU members may refuse to vote for it unless any of them gets an opt-out of its choice as Britain has so far enjoyed, because its partners wanted to keep it in at all costs. One can see that rejoining the EU would be even more difficult for British society, because of its internal divisions, than negotiating a new, as-close-as-possible, long-term relationship. Brexit is a tragedy, although it could hopefully provide also some opportunities for both sides. But, as I showed, restarting from square one wouldn’t be much better. Hopefully, over the next 2-4 years a new (Canada, Ukraine, Norwayor whatever -style) relationship will be agreed, the EU will complete its EMU and create a European Army. After which, close defence cooperation should be negotiated with the UK, that is, when the latter can no more jeopardize EU attempts to establish a common defence system and policy within NATO.

  25. avatar
    Nick Pantallas

    The upcoming vote is crucial.
    If May wins, Brexit is going to happen.
    if May loses, then it will be chaos and anything can happen.
    Also a second referendum and Remain.

  26. avatar
    Dave S

    One of the arguments for another referendum is that people did not know what they were voting for two years ago – I would argue that might still be the case if a further referendum was called for. Prior to the first referendum, David Cameron went to the EU to try a negotiate better terms to remain, with Britain achieving more home control. The EU called our bluff, and Cameron never pushed, because neither felt Leave would win. If the EU still wish Britain to remain, why are we not asking now what they would offer? Would they again call our bluff, or might we see terms that could unite the country once again?
    As a second point, the referendum was never the correct way of making the decision in the first place. In this situation a person wanting change is more likely to vote than someone wishing a status quo; introducing a bias. I very much suspect a majority of non-voters would have opted for remain, which is significant with such a close result. It baffles me why a second vote wasn’t called for straight away with a 52:48 outcome – if the turnout for the second vote had been lower than the first, the original result could have stood – but that’s crying over spilt milk!

    • avatar
      catherine benning

      @ Dave S

      So, if you feel a second vote should have been called right away and even now, after two years of trickery down the road, I suggest all those MP’s and political parties with votes that come nowhere near to as decisive as this was and is, should immediately give up their seats, or, abdicate, for they have no proper mandate.

      Your entire post is singing the tune of the misfits in our Parliament. Who have absolutely no moral right to be there. Unelected, not of any use to the people who pay to keep this show on the road. Those who are totally out of touch with the citizen they claim they represent, whilst they trouser their hard earned cash.

      More home control to do what? Impose the will of Globalists faster and more decisively on, not only the UK public, but the rest of the European peoples who are fighting with every breath they take to rid themselves of the trap they find themselves and their families in.

      The Referendum was the correct and only way for a democratic choice and decision. Switzerland do it all the time and their people are content with that good fortune.They know what is politically taken on board is with their support and permission. Non voters were and are happy with the decision being made for them. Silence, by the way, under law, is consent.

      And lets take that one step forward, Why would anyone in their right mind vote to remain? The years we have been enslaved by this unelected club has left us robbed by those who really are running this show, the banks of corporation heads, along with the movers and shakers who brought us to a financial crash in 2008. Those who were too big to fail. Remember them? And where was the UK in all of it?. Why, in the glorious and beneficial grip of the EU. No protection there and a cost that is eye watering. Now many of our people face starvation at our food banks, overrun by the worlds flotsam and jetsam, with the backing of these same hysterical ne’er do well and mindless group of European thieves who call themselves leaders.

      The British people have never done well inside or with Europeans ruling their life. Henry VIII knew that. Your problem is, you have succumbed to invaders who see us coming, and accepted the mental position of serf to the stealthy interloper.

      Parliament accepted our persistent call for a referendum and did so rightly. It is our democratic right to expect them to carry out our wishes and not now to renege on the deal they made. ‘That just isn’t cricket old boy’ or, is British culture a thorn in your collaborating side along with our right to own rule?

  27. avatar
    jthk

    This referendum is ridiculous. Brexit is passed by a simple majority of 51.89% (> 17 million) with a big minority up to 48.11% (>16 million) against, while over 13 million of the British people had not caste their vote.
    Should the government any duty and responsibility to learn what these 13 million people want to say before rushing for Brexit albeit all these discontent and disputes?

    • avatar
      catherine benning

      @ jthk

      And how many votes did your MP win by? What % did he/she gain in order to represent the constituents there? Did they vote in or out? My bet is not nearly as many votes were gained as the mind bogglingly large majority who voted to rid themselves of this unelected crew presently running our country from Brussels. They can see you coming from a mile away.

      Why don’t you like democracy? Had remain come in with the winning vote would you be yelling foul now and wanting a second try? I bet you would not.

      The serious issue we have at present is, those back room boys, whose faces you never see, have had time to rig a second vote, just as they did in Ireland. As they so dreadfully underrated the first one, this time they will be sure to use all the tricks in the trade to set this up against tax payers wishes.

      And by the way, the Remain boards all have written across them ‘we didn’t vote to be poorer’. Well now, why are they not reeling from how poor the UK is after being in the EU for forty years, having already had a rigged vote in 1975 to go into the sham.

      Go to France and try to heat your small flat and see how stung you will get. £100.00 a week for a two bed electric charge. At the same time, go to their supermarkets and pay £30.00 for a cheap pair of Chinese slippers, when in the UK today you can pick them up for £6.00. Try that for poor. Educate yourself, being ill informed is not appealing.

      No deal is the only way to be free of these octopus like tentacles squeezing the very life from our veins. There was no mention of deals when we were asked ‘in or out.’ And the idiot crew we have in the house on the Thames have no idea of politics or the real world. We are being run by a retarded old Mother Hubbard with nowt in her cupboard. Dried up, grinning and begging to be told she has great legs.

  28. avatar
    Dave S

    Try not to be so angry, Catherine. I’m not saying I want a second referendum, I’m just saying that if that’s an option it should be seen as an opportunity to see how much the rest of Europe want Britain to stay. It’s been stated that whatever the outcome of the debates, we won’t have as good a deal as we had before the referendum – why not see if that could be achievable and there’d be an offer of concessions to stay?
    I would still maintain that, in a referendum, those voting for change are more likely to vote, skewing the result. Not voting is complacency or laziness, more than consent.

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