Will strained relations between Russia and the West spill over into neighbouring countries? We’ve already seen violence in Ukraine, but could existing tensions in the Western Balkans be put under greater strain by increasing bitterness between the region’s two biggest neighbours?
In December of last year, at the 12th annual Balkans Summit held in Brussels by our partner think-tank, Friends of Europe, we spoke to senior policy-makers and politicians from both the EU and the Western Balkans.
One of the questions we put to them came from Valentino, who argued that increased tensions between the EU and Russia will split the Western Balkans:
[The] Western Balkan states will align themselves based on historical allegiances, i.e. those that have been more aligned to the West will favour [EU accession, while] the others will align themselves to the East, and in particular the Russian position…
To get a reaction, we put Valentino’s comment to Edi Rama, the Prime Minister of Albania. He warned that what happened in Ukraine, with vicious ethnic conflict exacerbated by tensions between Russia and the West, should be a lesson to Europe and should encourage it to start thinking in the long-term (i.e. to continue its enlargement process in the Western Balkans):
To get another perspective, we also put Valentino’s comment to Nikola Poposki, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. He argued it was important to remember that: “Practically all the countries in our region are extremely integrated”.
Finally, we put Valentino’s comment to Christian Danielsson, European Commission Director General for Enlargement. How would he respond?
Could worsening EU-Russia relations lead to tensions in the Balkans? Let us know your thoughts and comments in the form below, and we’ll take them to policy-makers for their reactions!
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Weren’t relations getting better?
Why always attack Russia? They are our natural allies whether the US likes it or not. And the way questions are being asked in Debating Europe is always to raise further tensions. I hope you guys are not being paid through my taxes as I would have sacked you all for your continued mediocre work.
Karel – This post is not an attack against Russia, it’s based on comments made by the Prime Minister of Albania when we asked him to respond to a question from one of our readers.
Quite possibly; the Balkan nations always seem eager to vent their individual spleens [at the very least] at the drop of a hat.
The EU should let the Balkan nations decide for themselves whether they want to be a part of the European Union or the Eurasian Union. The former would require great changes on their part [legal, police, civil etc] and the latter would not.
@Tarquin Farquhar……Quite!
After the current Paris event- perpetrated by “Muslim freedom fighters”- just a ‘non EU’ consideration:
The EU: ‘THE’ new future, non-Islamic ruling clique- after the Austro-Hungarians tried it?- consequence- WWI!
Is the present EU Balkan mission:
* A “service” of (or for) Humanity and Civilization- like the Habsburgs trying to tame Balkan Nationalism? What has changed & did the EC/JCJ & company learn anything from this conflict ~140 years ago- dragging 500 mio citizens with them?
* Let me quote from an article in the “Small wars Journal” – it was ~1878………:
* “Most insurgents were recruited from the largest religious group, the Muslims.”
* “The desire of influential Muslims to restore a conservative system.”
* “The discontent of specific social groups paired with a large number of discharges from the Ottoman Army.”
* “The desire to repel foreign invaders and to protect the ‘House of Islam’ (d?r al-isl?m) from the infidels, and the perception of rebels as heroes that was quite typical for the Balkans. ……………..”
Further of interest:
Ukraine admits its 42 ton gold is gone & nobody knows where to! (The Fed?)
Ukraine, a none EU member receives at least a 11 billion Euro support package from the EU! Suppose, every EU citizen is in agreement taking such financial risk?
I leave you with these thoughts & I thank you for last years wishes & counter by wishing you a prosperous 2015!
There would not be any tensions if the EU kept out of Ukraine. You supported a change in government when that goverment was an elected one. I assume you are ok if Russia or any other non EU government supports an overthrow of the EU government? Maybe we should start protests in front of EU parliament, we have enough reason to do so. And maybe we can get help. That would be great to get rid of the clueless conflict promoting politicians of the EU. The same EU supporting Siria rebels, libyan rebels etc etc. Hypocrisy at its best.
Why did the EU worsen its relations with Russia in the first place ?
This anti Russian propaganda is tiring and so obviously a set up. Why does the EU feel the need to impress on the civilian population that their anti Russian coup in the take over of the Ukraine was done at the behest of their allies?
What has really happened, as far as I can see, is the EU along with the US allies, orchestrated a coup in the Ukraine. Forced the Russian Ukrainian people to accept a non elected wierdo to run their country. Created a civil war and then brought about a reduction in the cost of oil in order to bankrupt the Russians and anyone else they wanted to control.
This was done in order to expand NATO deep into Russian territory on the back of Putin being leader of the evil empire. How strange this farce has become, when in a French peace march of the people yesterday, we see the European leaders arm in arm with yet another war criminal leader, who manages to hijack the entire affair throughout the day, in order to pretend he is the victim.
What a bizarre hypocrisy Europe has created. And to add insult to injury, today, we see them taking an easy poll here to see if the majority have swallowed it.
The vote should always be the winner not the axis of evil from Moscow
The Axis of Evil being the USA, the IMF and the EU?
If they keep there oil, policies, oilygars and there people too we be just fine like we always been! Conflict free
USA should make war against Russia, but not in Europe, in their home, in America!!!
wenn you stupet politic have and …. politicens , they see only the profit of some trasts then yes.
The only way the EU is causing tensions in the western Balkans is because the Commission forced the Bulgarian government to back off the South Stream pipeline project which was going to be a major route for Russian gas and supply western Balkan nations with below cost natural gas for the next 3 decades, as a result of which GDP growth was estimated at 0.5-1% just from the lower energy costs it would bring. Mind you, Europe has no problem buying gas from Russia. Even the Germans will not let the Americans bully them into cutting off commerce via the North Stream pipeline, but God forbid that the Southern European countries have half the economic benefit from Russia that Germany does. No that’s not what we are here for, we are only here to implement austerity and listen to Berlin’s diktat. We are small countries and frankly don’t have that much influence on European affairs. But to the British and the French, I hope they are ashamed of themselves and I hope that shame carries forth throughout history. Your ancestors bled at Verdun and at Normandy to make sure Germany doesn’t tell the whole continent what to do and after all that blood spilled with the stroke of a pen you allowed for Germany to unify and without sufficiently federalizing Europe so that Germany doesn’t dominate this “intergovernmental” Europe. We may as well rename the EU Germania and move the Commission’s seat to Berlin. Shame, shame, shame. And now that the mess has been made, the British want to click their heels, leave and pretend they had nothing to do with it in the first place. Had this generation of cowards and myopic idiots been present in your governments a hundred years ago, the Kaiser would have won.
Yes , radicals are back in Croatia and in Serbia ( Russian friend ) President is Tomislav Nikoli? . Nikoli? began his political career as vice-president of the People’s Radical Party. Under his initiative, the People’s Radical Party merged with Vojislav ?e?elj’s Serbian National Renewal to form the Serbian Radical Party. ?e?elj was elected president of the new party and Nikoli? as vice-president. In late September 2013, the Belgrade gay pride parade was banned by the Serbian police for the third consecutive year following violent threats issued by right-wing groups and requests by the Serbian Orthodox Church.
Yes , radicals are back in Croatia and in Serbia ( Russian friend ) President is Tomislav Nikoli? . Nikoli? began his political career as vice-president of the People’s Radical Party. Under his initiative, the People’s Radical Party merged with Vojislav ?e?elj’s Serbian National Renewal to form the Serbian Radical Party. ?e?elj was elected president of the new party and Nikoli? as vice-president. In late September 2013, the Belgrade gay pride parade was banned by the Serbian police for the third consecutive year following violent threats issued by right-wing groups and requests by the Serbian Orthodox Church.
The relation between the EU and Russia has become strained because our “good friends from the US” created a civil war in the artificially tailored Ukraine and when it hasn’t went to their way forced the EU to apply sanctions against Russia which is bad for both Russia and the EU but good for our dear American friends. So the whole question – especially the politically incorrect but freudian term “West” at present when eastern, southern, northern and western european countries could be found iboth in the EU and the NATO – is misleading :-(…
EU has to worry that one EU member Croatia gets new profascistic president, which only program is “fight again witches”. “Witches” are all progressive movements who fights again wild nationalism, corruption, oligarchs, organized crime, defends endangered minorities (LGBT, ethnic minorities, women discrimination) etc. That is the biggest problem, Russia is not problem. EU has big problem in own yard, and EU has to crash it before it is not too late.
101 years later…….
After 26 years,a new wall is made.to the east.it is not based on politics,but to different economical aproaches.Russia is trying to keep the old “friendships” .yes,also in the Balkans.
Tensions in balkans? Surely Not the European Union isn’t provoking but Russia ass with their intruded Russian separatists in UKR could do it.
Germany had a DDR and today Crimea was basically forced by Russia to be annexed with even no remords at all. I know enough to say that we need a much more stronger E.U. !
Who was it that thought declaring Kosovo to be an independent country was a good idea, violating international law and creating a precedent that turns out to have been a pandora’s box moment? Hint: not Russia.
Because if Kosovo should be independent, why not Kurdistan, Azawad, Darfur, Somaliland, Catalunya etc…
Wherever NATO meddles, it is never for the benefit of anyone but US corporate interests.
Agree with Marcel on this. What happened in Kosovo was shocking and the EU’s stance was disappointing to say the least. I have also heard first-hand how the Kosovars were treated and why they wanted to become independent but there should be an attempt to resolve such issues via diplomacy because to have so many small countries is not viable, in my view. People should make an effort to stay united. However, with regards to Russia’s stance in Ukraine: two wrongs don’t make a right and, make no mistake, Marcel, Russia is very aggressively promoting its own interests there. Imperialistic Russia, I should say.
Traitors
Russians and Serbs already had military maneuvers in Serbia last year along the Croatian border.
Also, Serbs in Serbia brought to power people who were playing their part
around Adolf Milosevic’s political and military machine fighting 4 wars
in neighboring countries from 1990 until NATO drooped bombs on Serbia
in 1999.
When
it comes to Serbs living outside of borders of Serbia, in neighboring
countries, they are still dreaming their dream of Great Serbia
stretching from Greece to the Alps. Bosnia and Herzegovina is a mess
since – what happened in Aug. of 1995 is the same as if Allies and
Russians were stopped half way in to Germany in 1945 and at the end
Germany was awarded with half of France.
And,
to top that, from 2000 you have world talking about the “Western
balkans”, once again Serb dominated “YUgoslavia” or “region”, just a bit
reshaped, despite the fact that people of now 6 countries said NO to
Great Serbia and Serb domination and they defended with their life’s
their democratic choice on referendums and democratically elected
governments on the first elections in 1990.
When
is enough to the west of reviving experiments that failed on numerous
occasion? Nothing good ever came from the east to that part of EUrope.
Think about it.
Thankfully
Croatians yesterday elected a new president who may just be what
country needs to return Croatia back into middle EUrope, to solidify
ties with EU, NATO and neighbors in central EUrope for a change.
What happened to Ukraine is the same kind of a mistake World made.
When is Croatia gonna face up to its history, regarding the Ustase movement (NKH Independent State of Croatia and its leader Ante Pavelic), aka allies of Nazi Germany? And their attempts to exterminate the national identity of Serbia?
Trolls are back in town.
So are the enemies of democracy, it seems.
Question what is provocative!
Worsening EU-Russia relations lead to tensions in the Balkans as much as in West European countries! Why again involve Balkans and move the topic away of weak politicians?!
Balkan has always been a war-field for the EU
I think that Russia-related tensions in the Balkans are unlikely, however anti-Muslim and anti-Christian tensions have always been there and are a much greater possibility and danger now, just like in the rest of Europe. This is what needs to be addressed urgently. A good start would be a European law that would ban jihad and any form of holy war or violence in the name of God or religion. In this way anyone who even agrees with the idea of jihad in the Quran, will be considered a potential terrorist. Russia is not a danger to Europe. Stop this useless anti-Russian propaganda and open your eyes to the reality!
Yes, they could, as Mr Putin is attempting to widen his sphere of influence. He has tried to meddle in Greek politics already and he has given help to the FYROM to put up the tension with Greece in its attempt to claim Greek-Macedonian heritage. It has been quietly already said in diplomatic circles that during EU negotiations Mr Gruevski’s answers have been in the line of interest of the ex-Yugoslavia and ex-Soviet sphere of influence. We have also seen Mr Putin visit Serbia recently to attend a military parade, which was actually rescheduled to suit his schedule. The EU should watch and understand that those countries are naturally leaning towards Russia, as they have common cultural heritage, called Slavic, which they seem to give preference to over international ambitions. The EU should not try and force situations and extend its welcome to countries that do not belong to it culturally or politically. They are not ready yet to drop their emotional connections to the former USSR and do not share the logical approach that characterises Western mentality and politics. They are not ready to join yet.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/v/t1.0-9/10931386_1527701484160479_5203120360501102242_n.jpg?oh=eab8f535c86ab1bec891783e83508b83&oe=552D1891&__gda__=1428828840_f5b1709ffcd9c861902eab477ab8b741
The eu elite should stop thier anti russia propaganda campaign, its getting a little old. We all know now ukraine has the third largest gas reserves in europe , thats the prize and its under the donetsk region , its a huge winfall for porkychensko and his oil buddies.
I like the eu media , they report on isis , on the economy , but they fail to be able to report about the genocide porkychensko and his oil buddies are carrying out.
Its sad to see how people are being misled by these pychopaths.
We dont need protection from terrorists , we need protection from these corporate goverments.
Poetin and others want to set up an alternative to the oil dollar. Corporate/Washington are not about to lose thier position in the world as n1 players , so poetin has to go one way or another, and its the other that worrys me.
EU/American bankster/politicians should be behind bars, then the world would be a better safer place. America has had 13 years of oil wars , and it will never be enough. They have russia in thier crosshairs , and after that well who knows..
“Occupy the boards” seems to be the new strategy of Kremlin’s commentators.
Seriously, the problem here is: there’s no exit strategy for EU’s involvement in Ukraine, as well as Russia, so both party just roll the dice and wait to see what’s come out, pushing the situation to its limits.
Serbia has put all the former Milosevic people back in power.And nowbody in Europe gives a damn about it.All the war mongering journalists who brought these people in power in the 90’s are back on their jobs.Serbia is still to this day denying the Srebrenica Genocide and every war crime it’s people commited.The EU has been silent for far too long.Today Serbian authorities released the people who committed the worst crime in Croatia during the war the Ovcara massacre.Still the EU is doing nothing about Serbia and it’s politicians.All the NGO’s im Serbia are saying that Serbia is rewriting history and relativizes crimes in order to award the monsters who comitted them and the EU is still silent.The EU had given up on the victims of the Balkan wars which ia understandable considering that the old EU initially supported Milosevic and his fascist troops.
Serbia has put all the former Milosevic people back in power.And nowbody in Europe cares.All the war mongering journalists who brought these people in power in the 90′s are back on their jobs.Serbia is still to this day denying the Srebrenica Genocide and every war crime it’s people commited.The EU has been silent for far too long.Today Serbian authorities released the people who committed the worst crime in Croatia during the war the Ovcara massacre.Still the EU is doing nothing about Serbia and it’s politicians.All the NGO’s im Serbia are saying that Serbia is rewriting history and relativizes crimes in order to award the monsters who comitted them and the EU is still silent.The EU had given up on the victims of the Balkan wars which ia understandable considering that the old EU initially supported Milosevic and his fascist troops.
Today Serbia’s president Nikolic openly threatened the chief prossecutor for War Crimes in Serbia and told him to stop digging into a case.New evidence has faced up that proves the chief of the Serbian Army is involved in war cimes in Kosovo.Still the EU is silent!
Yes.The current president of Serbia is the same guy who threatened the late prime minister Djindjic before his assasination.The same guy who is accused buy his own fellow Serbian politicians of personaly comitting war crimes in Croatia.The same guy that denies the Srebrenica genocide and the same guy who named streets after the Srebrenica butcher Mladic.The current prime minister of Serbia called to execute 100 muslims for every Serb during the Nato bombing campain! The current minister of police in Serbianis a former Milosevic spokesman.He openly justified massacres and genocide.These people are running Serbia right now and the EU